RARE -- CHAPTER 12 -- AFGHANISTAN'S PATH TO PROSPERITY

CHAPTER 12 – AFGHANISTAN’S PATH TO PROSPERITY

In this chapter, the author suggests that newly discovered and re-cataloged sites of mineral resources may be “Afghanistan’s path to prosperity”.  In the beginning of the chapter, the author offers a short synopsis of the plight of this small country as it endured over three decades of being a “political and military pawn of superpowers”.  Its current situation, according to the author, is such that “the Afghani people are troubled by a number of roadblocks to financial prosperity and technological advancement, with many of these barriers put in place by their own government”.   For example, in 2010, the then president Hamid Karzai banned the use ammonium nitrate to prevent its use for making explosive devices primarily by the Taliban.  Ammonium nitrate is used as fertilizer and without the government offering any help or replacement, farmers saw a precipitous drop in their crop yields.  This situation made illegal opium farming a more lucrative alternative for many farmers as selling raw opium ($700/lb) earns earn them more money for a much smaller crop yield.  The Taliban simply replaced the banned ammonium nitrate with potassium chlorate which is used in textile mills. Efforts to enforce environmental laws, while well-intentioned, such as banning the use brick-kilns and limiting automobile traffic resulted in lower incomes which affected the poor the most.  The tragic quandary that Afghanistan finds itself in today is summed up by the author as follows: “These are excellent examples of the troubles such a developing country faces as it tries to advance its economy and its infrastructure while at the same time doing minimal damage to the environment, a problem that continues to plague Afghanistan as the country tries to make the most of its vast resources”.  Afghanistan’s problems to move forward are further exacerbated by the lack of funding to mitigate and remediate the effects of erosion and deforestation which has led to the loss of farmland and livelihood as more lands turn into desert.  Its weak electrical infrastructure causes frequent blackouts that affect not just the day-to-day living of people but industries as well.  Growing poppies is a lucrative industry because it is a source of medically valuable morphine and, after a slight chemical alteration, illegally in-demand heroin.  According to the author, the Afghans turned to the opium trade to fund its fight against the Soviets.  In 2000 and 2001, the Taliban leader Mullah Mohammed Omar issued a ban on growing and selling opium as it is against Islam teachings. The ban was 99% successful in areas controlled by the Taliban until it was lifted after the US began military operations in Afghanistan.  In 2013, the cultivation of opium reached a high of 6 tons and continued to account for half Afghanistan’s GDP.  20% of the revenues go to the Taliban as a religious tax.  Afghanistan also turned to growing and selling cannabis becoming the largest supplier in 2010. 

The path to prosperity:  In 2010, the Pentagon released a US Geological Survey report on potential rare earth resources in Afghanistan, revealing a “treasure trove of previously unknown mineral resources including gold, iron, and rare earth metals”.  The speculated value of these potential mineral deposits ranged from $1 trillion to $3 trillion.  In addition, Afghanistan also has abundant deposits of precious gems such as sapphires, emeralds, rubies, lapis lazuli, and other semi-precious gems.  In the last section, “the Future of Afghanistan”, the author offers a litany of positive outcomes if Afghanistan can secure the infrastructure aid it needs to carry out the mining operations needed to reap the wealth from these mineral resources.  The author believes that whoever the donor country is, this aid can forge a mutually beneficial relationship.  To the US, Afghanistan can provide a good buffer region against China and Russia and potential staging ground for its interactions in the Middle East.  A stable Afghanistan can also play a role in “stemming future escalations of military tensions between a nuclear India and a nuclear Pakistan”.  Lastly, if it trickles down to the poorest and most dependent on the opium trade, the financial gains from mining may make the opium trade less lucrative, cutting off one of the biggest sources of international drug trade while providing the world with these important metals.